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The Middle East: The Impact of Generational Change (The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies)
The Middle East: The Impact of Generational Change (The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies)
Date: 23 May 2011, 14:12
A flurry of political change in the Middle East has created the appearance
of an “Arab Spring”: elections in Iraq and the PA (Palestinian Authority),
mass rallies and elections in Lebanon, President Husni Mubarak’s
decision to allow other candidates to compete in the Egyptian
presidential elections, and local elections in Saudi Arabia. What is the
essence of these changes, and what is their cause? Are they the fruit of
President Bush’s policy to advance democracy in the Middle East, or are
they perhaps an outcome of the media revolution currently sweeping
the Arab world? Are they the harbingers of a genuine revolution that
has been provoked by the considerable political, economic, and social
frustration in the region, or are they merely a series of superficial
coincidences that have nothing to do with comprehensive change? Are
the various leadership successions inducing gradual transformations,
or are the new heads of state simply waging the same persistent, ageold
struggle to preserve the status quo?
In light of these ambiguities, the successions in the Middle East were
examined at a symposium held in March 2005 at the Moshe Dayan
Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. All the speakers were
scholars of the Dayan Center, with the exception of Dr. Yoram Meital, a
guest lecturer on Egyptian affairs from Ben-Gurion University.
For quite some time, observers discussed the possibility that Husni
Mubarak would follow in the footsteps of Syria’s Hafiz al-Asad and
bequeath the Egyptian presidency to his son. However, in February 2005,
Mubarak called for a revision of the constitution that would allow several
candidates to compete in free presidential elections. Given the
restrictions imposed on potential challengers and the overwhelming
victory of Mubarak, the change appeared to be cosmetic or, as the
Egyptian opposition claimed, merely an optical illusion of democracy.
The question being asked in Syria is not whether democracy is making
inroads following the aforementioned transfer of power but whether
Hafiz al-Asad’s son and successor, Bashar, is actually in control of the
country. A more pertinent question, however, is – how long can this.............

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