Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes | Date: 28 April 2011, 04:32
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Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes (Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making//Proceedings)
By Patrick Humphreys
* Publisher: Elsevier Science Ltd
* Number Of Pages: 566
* Publication Date: 1983-12
* ISBN-10 / ASIN: 0444865225
* ISBN-13 / EAN: 9780444865229
PREFACE
The papers in this book are an edited selection from those presented at the
Eighth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision
Making, held in Budapest in August 1981. Together they span a wide
range of new developments in studies of decision making, the practice of
decision analysis and the development of decision-aiding technology.
The international, interdisciplinary nature of the work represented
here makes it difficult and perhaps unwise to assign papers to categories
according to the methodology or approach used, or the area surveyed.
Nevertheless, we have arranged the book in five principal sections, according
to the different fields of interests our readers may have, and placed
in each section those papers which seem to be particularly significant in
providing food for thought and new perspectives within that field. The
titles we gave to the first four sections are "Societal Decision Making",
"Organizational Decision Making", "Aiding the Structuring of Small Scale
Decision Problems, and "Tracing Decision Processes". Throughout, the
emphasis i s on decision processes and structures and their applications,
rather than formal modelling in isolation. We do not see this as a 'bias',
but rather a reflection of current developments in research and practice
which follow from the understanding of the nature and operation of
decision theoretic models gained during the 1970's. Here you will find
suggestions on how to bring these models alive and put them to work in
a wide range of contexts.
The fifth section is of a different nature. It presents papers given
at a symposium on the validity of studies on heuristics and biases at the
Budapest conference. These papers take stock of the considerable volume
of work investigating 'heuristics and biases' in decision making over the
past decade, and their implication for theory and practice. The papers
give the authors' own viewpoints and are presented here unedited with
the hope that they will stimulate discussion among a wider audience.
We do not propose to make any suggestions directing particular
readers t o particular sections, as this would run counter t o the spirit of
the book and the conference which gave rise to it. However, if IOU would
like a general overview of the papers in a section before delving more
deeply, you will find this in the introduction at the start of the section.
The Eighth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility
and Decision Making was part of a biennial series, currently attracting
over one hundred leading practitioners. Participation in these conferences
is open to anyone working in relevant areas, and the conference is advertized
through the mailing of information t o active individuals and institutions.
It is a European conference, and while participation is encouraged
from all countries in the world, its principal aim is t o stimulate the
exchange of ideas and development of research and practice throughout
Europe, east and west. Conferences have been held in Hamburg (1969),
Amsterdam ( 1 970), London ( 1 971 ), Rome ( 1 973), Darmstadt (1 975),
Warsaw ( 1 977), Gothenburg ( 1 979) and Budapest ( 1 981 ). The Ninth
conference will be held in Groningen, the Netherlands. in 1983.
Procedures for setting up and running each conference fall under the
responsibility of an organizing committee chosen at the closing session
of the previous conference. The conference is not affiliated t o or sponsored
by any institution or organization, being supported each time by its
participants and by national research agencies of the host country, and we
consider that such independence has been a cornerstone in maintaining its
vitality and acceptance across the complete range of European countries.
Edited versions of the proceedings of most of'the conferences in the
series have been published in books, or in Actu Psychologicu.* Keviewing
earlier publications in the series, one can see how foundations laid earlier
come t o fruition and in turn set the scene for new developments in the
field. We have compiled this volume with the hope that it will play its
part in this process.
Patrick Humphreys
Ola Svenson
Anna Vari
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